Monday, August 8 - Colonial Downs and Rosie's Gaming Emporium Monday, August 8 - Colonial Downs and Rosie's Gaming Emporium

COLONIAL DOWNS RACE ANALYSIS WITH JESSICA PAQUETTE


Monday, August 8 Tip Sheet

Race 1
#6 Bank should find himself with an ideal pace set up with plenty of speed in this race. Though his recent form has been average, he is getting a significant class break here and his ability to sit off of what should be a hotly contested pace works to his favor. He is a quality horse and proven over this main track with a good run against stakes company last summer. #4 Ubiquitous has been on the bench since breaking his maiden at Gulfstream in December and apparently caught a legitimate field that day. From only a handful of starts, he has shown plenty of ability and looks conservatively spotted for his return to action off of a steady recent worktab. #1 Steinbeck was a very expensive two-year-old and drew a $650,000 price tag. At this point, he has not lived up to the purchase price and was claimed for $30k over the winter. He broke his maiden when he dropped in to that level and with a similar class drop down from some tough allowance company at Laurel, he looks well meant here. In his better efforts, he does have some tactical speed and that should prove effective.
Top Picks: 6-4-1-5

Race 2
#1 Galilei had an encouraging effort on the local turf in only her second start and off of her pedigree, she stands to improve with age and experience. She caught a very talented winner in Surya that day and was right in the thick of things for the minor awards. She is a half sister to Urban Fairytale, a Virginia-bred award winner and has a bright future ahead of her as well. #5 Determined Empire has a lot of appeal trying the turf for the first time. This well-bred filly boasts an impressive female family and her dam was a graded stakes winner on the turf. She hasn’t had the most racing luck from only two starts but could improve significantly on the surface switch. #4 Reign of Love showed some speed in her second start but it was her debut on the turf that was a better performance. Though she may have just been passing some tired rivals at the end, she got over the surface well enough to make her interesting back on the lawn. Her dam was a Maryland-bred champion and graded stakes winner and has been a solid producer – her offspring include graded stakes winner Unchained Melody.
Top Picks: 1-5-4-3

Race 3
#4 Kinda Lucky earned her third career victory via disqualification last time out but take nothing away from the sharp, solid form this filly has been in. She comes out for a red hot barn and has really hit her best stride. She is quick out of the gate and if she can open up a length or so advantage early, she may be difficult to reel in. #6 Windy City Girl made a massive step forward in her second start back off of a layoff and seems to be heading in the right direction. She has a sharp turn of foot and her stablemate has enough speed to potentially ensure Kinda Lucky doesn’t get to coast along on the front end. #2 R Tenderoni has limited turf experience but her effort in the spring at Tampa was respectable. She needs to move forward off of her last race but is getting some class relief here.
Top Picks: 4-6-2-3

Race 4
#4 Fly Me Home returns to the main track and while the turf experiment made sense off of her pedigree, at this point she has shown far more ability on the dirt. She had back to back wins prior to that and today she will be asked to stretch her speed to seven furlongs. The distance should be within her scope and she may find herself with everything her own way on the front end. #3 Café Society caught a very tough field last time out – the winner has since won two more stakes races including the Delaware Park Handicap (GII). Prior to that stakes race, she had been holding her own against solid allowance company. She cuts back slightly in distance and the seven furlongs may suit her very well. #6 Regal Retort is classy veteran racemare and at this point in her career, this looks like the level where she can be most competitive. She comes into this race off of decent Churchill form and with just a modest step forward should be a major contender.
Top Picks: 4-3-6-1

Race 5
#1 Mischief Afoot has been freshened since taking on graded stakes company in the Pimlico Special and while he has not been the most consistent, he has routinely caught some quality fields and may find this group within his scope. He comes in to this return effort off of a sharp worktab at Fair Hill and this barn has already sent out a winner this season. #7 Bustoff has one of the more consistent recent records of this field and looks like a logical top contender. He caught one of the best in the Mid Atlantic, Cordmaker, two starts back and should fit well with this field. His best efforts come on or near the lead so expect him to be a factor early. #2 Hanalei’s Houdini was claimed out of a dull effort on the turf last time out and he should be able to move forward and return to form back on the main track. His only real blemish prior to that turf try came when he was very ambitiously spotted against graded stakes company and his tactical speed should be effective.
Top Picks: 1-7-2-5

Race 6
#9 Run Lea Run wheels right back after a really encouraging effort on the lawn against similar. That was only his second start at this reduced level and he moved up in a big way back on his preferred surface. Strike while the iron is hot and a repeat performance should put him right in the mix. #1 Blame the Booze returned off of an extended layoff in May and while he has had some significant gaps in his past performances since his juvenile season, there is no question that he has some real talent as well. His comeback effort and four-year-old debut was encouraging – he missed third by only a nose after losing some ground and not having the best trip. With world class connections, he may get overbet on a big class drop. #8 My Boy Blue needs to do better than his last race but drops down a notch and does have an advantage over several rivals – the turf is not a question mark and he has proven he can be competitive on this surface.
Top Picks: 9-1-8-10

Race 7
#5 Lady Ave was one of the best horses of the season at Sam Houston and this mare just showed up and ran her race every single time. Her form did tail off slightly as the season went on but she came back in good order at Lone Star and showed she can be competitive outside of her home state. She is a hard-knocking, honest mare and very tenacious on the front end. #1 Dr. Ann was very game in victory last time out and notched her second straight win. She does seem to do her best running with some time between her races. She is the model of consistency and her strength here comes from her ability to take just off of the top flight– it could get quick on the front end and she may be able to get an ideal stalking trip. #7 Girls a Bullet could capitalize if anyone is able to really soften up Lady Ave early. She comes out of a good effort to just miss catching Dr. Ann last time out and this is another consistent mare with some back class. She has been knocking on the door of a breakthrough win this year and a repeat performance puts her right in the hunt.
Top Picks: 5-1-7-4

Race 8
#1 King’s Legacy looks like a logical contender and her inexperience is certainly appealing. With only three starts, she still looks like she is improving and developing and has shown enough ability in all three. The Gulfstream form has been translating well so far this season and her speed should be effective. #10 Maxine Machine drops in for a tag for the first time after struggling against some tough allowance fields. She has been freshened a bit since her last race in June and did show some real ability early in her career – her maiden win was sharp and she had several good allowance efforts later in the season. Her female family is strong – her dam was a Grade 1 winning sprinter and this filly may be able to rebound here. #2 Sweet Annabelle gets another try on the turf here and will drop back in for a tag after catching a solid allowance field. She got over the surface well enough to think that it was the company that was more of the issue not necessarily the surface and off of that race could offer some value for live connections.
Top Picks: 1-10-2-11

Race 9
#5 Tolaga Bay has a lot of upside as he makes his second start back off of a year-long layoff and gave a very good showing of himself last time out. He was very animated and opinionated while being saddled but was all business once he hit the track. He has shown some ability over fences but has also proven himself to be a competitive horse on the flat. #1 Carloun (IRE) is another horse in this race coming out of a respected steeplechase barn and he has rounded into very solid form on the flat. He was making up ground well last time out against a similar field and looks like he is heading in the right direction. #7 Noble Cross put it all together to break his maiden last time out and will try for two in a row after breaking the ice. He got over this turf course very well and his natural cruising speed should work to his advantage.
Top Picks: 5-1-7-4

Race 10
#7 Dunedin did a lot right in his debut and with several first time starters here, the experience could give him an advantage. He got over the surface well and as he continues to develop and mature, he should be able to put all the pieces together. #8 Souper Souper Flag has a serious female family. His second dam is a half-sister to Miesque’s Approval, World Approval, Za Approval and Revved Up – all serious turf stars and millionaires. This colt may be more interesting with some time to develop and more distance but this barn does well with firsters. #9 Discreet Devil could be an interesting debut runner at a price. This horse has turf sprint influence heavily in his female family and is a half sister to a stakes quality turf sprinter. This barn has been sending out some live runners at big prices and this colt may be worth a look.
Top Picks: 7-8-9-6

Race 11
#4 Sa’ad had every excuse last time out- he grabbed a quarter during the race and really turned in a credible, honest effort all things considered. With a little luck, he looms as a big threat for a hot barn as he continues to find his best stride since coming stateside. #9 Pacificist is one of two offspring of Fairytale Ending on today’s card. His younger sister, Galilei, is in a maiden race and they are both half siblings to Virginia champion Urban Fairytale. This lightly raced gelding is bred to be an athlete and showed significant improvement in his second start over jumps. #2 Romp gave a good showing against a similar field and has plenty of natural scope, stamina and back class. He has a strong female family full of stakes types and seems to be taking to his new job over fences after a solid career on the flat.
Top Picks: 4-9-2-8

Race 12
#3 Who’s Counting comes in off of a sharp win on the flat and this consistent gelding has really hit his best stride. He has been just as consistent and honest over fences and looks tough here. #5 New Appointment (IRE) made her stateside debut a good one with a winning effort on opening day. She did everything right and looks like a young horse with a bright future. She goes for two in a row and figures to be the one to beat. #2 Jump Ship is a classy veteran and put in a solid performance last time out. He does seem like a quirky type that likes things a certain way and jockey Mell Boucher has a good partnership with him.
Top Picks: 3-5-2-4

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