Tip Sheet August 9 - Colonial Downs and Rosie's Gaming Emporium Tip Sheet August 9 - Colonial Downs and Rosie's Gaming Emporium

COLONIAL DOWNS RACE ANALYSIS WITH JESSICA PAQUETTE


Tuesday, August 9

Race 1
#3 Mo Clare’s made every call a winning one in her local debut and defeated a strong field – including a Virginia-bred champion – in a game front running effort. She will try for two in a row and her natural speed, in addition to slightly less distance, makes her very formidable. #4 Aurum took on a very tough field last time out and though it was an average effort, she should be more effective here. This lightly raced filly has some obvious ability – her maiden win locally last summer was sharp – and she did clock an encouraging bullet workout since that last race. #1 Unruly Julie turned in a solid effort in her local debut to run fourth at massive odds behind a well-meant and talented winner. It was a good step in the right direction and with only a handful of starts this year, she may be rounding into form and could improve further in her third start of the year. She is capable at this distance and could have upset potential. Top Picks: 3-4-1-2

Race 2 
#5 Tactical Cheech had a good effort against similar company locally last time out and a repeat of that performance should put him right in the mix. There does seem to be some pace in this spot and he should have some speed to run at.  #8 El Guapo is one of the more experienced maidens here but he is also one of the most formful – he has shown plenty of ability and his speed will make him the one to catch. Seven furlongs seems to have been past his scope at this point and the slight cutback to six furlongs may help him maintain his speed. #3 Get Them Digits was claimed out of an average effort on the turf and goes back to the main track here. Though his best effort to date did come on the turf, he showed some ability on the main track early in his career and his speed seems to be effective on either surface. Top Picks:  5-8-3-6

Race 3
#1 Kendama knocked heads with a formidable field last time out and really held his own on opening day. This lightly raced gelding has done very little wrong from only nine starts and has proven he can hold his own against some of the top statebreds as well as good open company throughout the Mid Atlantic. He has a sharp turn of foot and will be a factor from off of the pace. #2 Embolden caught a very talented winner last time out and was making up ground well. He stretches out today and a mile has always been well within his scope. He is a former local stakes winner and though he is winless so far this year, the stretch out could wake him up and he has too much back class to overlook.  #3 Guillaume is relatively unproven on the turf and the surface switch is interesting. Last year locally, he would come to the paddock in an iron halter  – he was not always the best citizen in the paddock and it will be interesting to see if he has quieted and matured since then. He has some clear ability and if he takes to the surface he could be a big contender. Top Picks: 1-2-3-7 

Race 4
#7 Siege of Boston came back off of a layoff and ran a very credible race despite not getting the best trip. This colt is bred to just improve with distance and as he continues to grow and develop and a repeat of his last performance is good enough to put him in the mix. Dam was a stakes winner in France and had no shortage of stamina herself. She also has a strong female family – her half brother is Arc winner Peintre Celebre. #8 Catnip is a half brother to Princess Grace, a multiple graded stakes winning millionaire who broke her maiden in her career debut at Colonial in 2020. This colt gave a good showing of himself in his debut at Fair Grounds and despite racing greenly, showed some talent. #1 Fleeting Attire ran a very good race in for a tag at Laurel and off of that encouraging effort, he steps back up a notch. This gelding has shown plenty of ability from only a handful of starts and the distance and surface both seem to be exactly what he needs to put the pieces together. Top Picks: 7-8-1-6

Race 5
#4 Heldish was much the best in his career debut and will try to make it two in a row for the red hot Russell barn. He set sharp fractions and had plenty left in the tank. While this is a step up from maiden claiming company to stakes company, he fits with this group and should be a top contender. #2 Bandit’s Heart is a debut runner facing stakes company for his first start but he has some pedigree behind him – he is a half brother to the hard-knocking warhorse Anna’s Bandit who was campaigned to 17 victories for these same connections. #5 Simply Super was very precocious and won his debut handily in April. Since then, his two tries against stakes company were average at best but they did come against tough company at Churchill. His recent bullet workout was sharp and this colt figures to be a threat for connections that have already teamed up for a stakes win this season. Top Picks: 4-2-5-7

Race 6
#3 Wi Fi gets a little further class relief after a solid effort against in her first local start of the season. From only a handful of starts, she has shown enough ability to warrant some consideration and seems to have no shortage of stamina. She has run well on both turf and synthetic and her recent form is consistent enough to make her a logical contender. #6 Wildcat switches back to the flat after a couple of tries over fences and her efforts last summer against maiden claiming company on the flat were solid and competitive. She does come from out of the clouds so she will be at the mercy of the pace. #9 Cainyoudothetwist is another steeplechase horse switching back to the flat and she has shown ability both over fences and against similar company. She does seem to have matured and become more ratable as she has gotten older and her last effort against flat maiden company last summer was very good. Top Picks: 3-6-9-12

Race 7
#9 Naval Empire was a professional debut winner on July 12 and it looks like she defeated a solid field – La Tache came back to stretch out and run well around two turns. While this filly may continue to improve as she develops and gets more distance, she has shown she can sprint effectively and figures to be a top contender to make it two in a row. #3 Genieinabridle was the beaten favorite in her career debut but did a lot right and it looks like it was an educational first start. There should be some fillies flashing speed here and she has shown she can make a solid rally. #1 Back Seat Betty delivered as the heavy favorite in her debut and will step up to stakes company and get a class test here. She did everything right that day and is bred to only improve as she continues to mature. Top Picks: 9-3-1-2 

Race 8
#7 Strong Headed came back off of nearly a year-long layoff last time out and ran a dynamite race. He did not have the best trip and turned in a game, competitive effort. He has some back class and should be physically even sharper with a race under his belt and should get a solid stalking trip here. #6 Colonist will try for two in a row for a barn that is having a strong meet. This classy veteran was able to make a big step forward and the switch back to turf from synthetics seemed to move him up. Carol Cedeno back in town for the ride and he looks well meant here. #5 Medicine Tail tried to take them gate to wire last time out and while he did run out of gas in the stretch, he gets a slight cutback to a mile here and his speed should be more effective. Top Picks: 7-6-5-3 

Race 9
#8 Packed House was an impressive winner at Hawthorne in June and we have seen the Illinois form hold up very well this season. He seems to have one gear and that is to go early so expect him to be a factor on the front end. While he may not be unopposed on the front end, he is quick out of the gate and could get to control the pace. #6 Clear N Convincing may not be the most consistent but he has some back class and comes out for live connections. His female family is exceptional – his stakes winning dam is a full sister to millionaire Graeme Hall and a half to Grade 1 winner Harmony Lodge. She has also produced graded stakes winner First Passage. If anyone can soften the speed early, he could be ready to pounce. #4 Captain Thunder could be an interesting horse at a price. He made minor improvements last time out in only his second start since January and has some upside as he continues to round into form.  Top Picks: 8-6-4-3 

Race 10
#2 Power Through notched his second victory last time out and that was flattered when the runner-up came back to win his next start. He has some momentum coming in off of a victory and his natural cruising speed served him well last time out. He does his best running on the front end so expect him to be a factor early. #6 Tijuana Brass could be interesting as a longshot here. He returned off of a layoff in June and while that wasn’t a strong effort, he did show some interest and may have needed one off of the bench. He had several competitive efforts last summer and gets over this turf course well.  #8 Authoritarian had a good win two starts back and did not run a bad race last time out, either. He seems like a tactical, versatile type of horse and a repeat of his sort of effort two back should put him right in the mix. Top Picks: 2-6-8-7

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