EXPERT PICKS BY KAITLIN FREE
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9
RACE 1
(2) AFRAID NOT – Nearly won last out here over the hurdles going over a mile further. Has form on the flat too at the distance & will hang on just fine. Should appreciate the weight break getting Toledo aboard
(1) KRONE – Ran very well here last out over the surface just shorter than this with a troubled run. Also has a just miss 2nd this year at the same distance at Pimlico. Knocking on the door & could be a winner with a cleaner trip
(6) POR UNA CABEZA – Will take a lot of money & rightfully so, first out today for the Graham Motion barn. Good barn coming off the layoff but hasn’t been seen in 7 months – not a short distance either coming from off the shelf, might need one
RACE 2
(2) CONNECTAMUNDO – Liked what I saw from this colt on debut, got out of the gates slow but churned away late & made up ground. Should improve at 2nd asking against a similar group, big rider pick up in Julien Leparoux
(1) DIALED IN A PANIC – Huge meet so far for the Aguirre barn at 38%, not a ton of runners but what has been running is doing very well. Decent numbers in the maiden claim levels, just doesn’t start a lot of juveniles
(6) IMPERIALITY – Drops in class off of a key last out race, that race winner is potentially one of the top 2YO’s in the country. Only concern is that jockey Gavin Ashton opts to a first time starter instead
RACE 3
(6) YANKEE DOLLAR – Tough to swallow at that 3-2 ML, but not a ton of pace signed on to oppose this filly. Impressive win here two back over this surface at the distance, if she runs that race back she should notch another win
(8) DIVINE EXCHANGE – Don’t overlook coming in from Gulfstream on the tapeta. Fausto Gutierrez barn has been huge this meet, 44% & nothing has ran off the board. Should appreciate being back on the grass
(4) PANOTTI – Struggled here two back against Yankee Dollar, but certainly more interesting today with Jose Ortiz back in the irons. Will have to work out a trip coming from off the pace most likely
RACE 4
(3) LAKESIDE GETAWAY – Was wide going one turn last out at Saratoga, love the stretch out to the two turns today. 31% between the Trombetta barn & Paco Lopez within the year
(1) WAY TOO EARLY – Comes out of both longer & shorter races, this distance here could hit him between the eyes. Huge 50% this meet for the Shug McGaughey barn, 29% going from a MSW to a maiden claim level
(6) TRIBEST (ARG) – Makes sense getting back on the grass after not handling a couple runs on the dirt. Working sharply at Churchill Downs for the Kenny McPeek barn coming in
RACE 5
(4) SEVEN BRIDGES ROAD – Back on a week’s rest to run one last time this meet, just as good on the grass as he is the dirt & is in career best form. Probably also this horse’s top distance
(8) BRYCE CANYON – Very similar to the 4 & should also get a good pace set up. Very good on the grass but possibly better on the all weather. 0 for 5 at the distance
(2) FINGAL – Has a bit to find to be able to win the race, but is a must use underneath with the prowess for the track. Distance a bit short for him but the consistency this meet has been too good to ignore
RACE 6
(9) OUTLAW KID – Will get the perfect set up if both the 7 & 8 go forward, has an excellent turn of foot & can work out a trip anywhere from 5 to 6 ½ furlongs. Jose Ortiz 29% within the year teaming up with the George Weaver barn
(8) NOBALS – In my opinion the best horse in the race but could be significantly be compromised with the 7 having a very similar running style. Can come from off the pace but it has been awhile, wouldn’t put it past him a bit to win though
(6) YES AND YES – Ran very well two back here to just miss behind Front Run the Fed in the Van Clief Stakes. 2nd in this race last year & loves this surface. Should be in the mix again
RACE 7
(7) MANABI – Impressive on debut here at this distance, don’t see a ton of pace to go forward with him either. 27% for the Delacour barn coming in off of a win, calls upon main man Victor Carrasco to retain the mount
(8) SKELLIG ISLAND – Gets the acid test in here on a big step up in class, but the debut was sharp & made an impressive move for a first time starter. 40% from a sizeable sample size with Karamanos in the saddle for the barn
(3) TRIPLE ESPRESSO – Can’t discount anything from the Todd Pletcher barn, but big ask debuting today in a stakes race going the two turns. Will take a ton of money in here & if you like someone else you should get the price
RACE 8
(5) NO NAY METS (IRE) – Didn’t have the cleanest run at Royal Ascot but has been perfect elsewhere. Last race out at Monmouth has produced several winners since that were a good ways behind him. Don’t see a lot in here that could hang with him
(3) TOUPIE – Moves from the dirt to the grass today, debut at Laurel was very impressive & came back pretty fast. 25% between Jorge Ruiz & the Graham Motion barn on the year, should handle the surface switch just fine
(11) AIR RECRUIT – Maiden win here on debut was strong, the other two that made up the trifecta have also broken their maiden since. Has the key experience over the surface & likes it very much
RACE 9
(7) MISSION OF JOY – A bit disappointing last out in the G1 Belmont Oaks as the favorite but is back to her best distance today & reunites with previous regular rider Antonio Gallardo. Lots to like in a race where she looks the best on paper
(6) THIRTY THOU KELVIN – Could be the forgotten horse in this race with bigger entries coming in from New York, but this filly is proven at the distance herself. Career best last out at Delaware winning on the lead going 1 ⅛
(8) ALPHA BELLA – Renews her rivalry with Mission of Joy here today, I just prefer Mission of Joy a bit more & still think this filly has a bit to find on her. Back on the turf after crushing a field on the dirt by 23 lengths last out at Saratoga
RACE 10
(11) PROGRAM TRADING (GB) – Unbeaten in three starts & hard to deny in this spot. Has to handle the ground but is extremely versatile so it shouldn’t be a problem. Regular rider Flavien Prat follows him into town
(9) INTEGRATION – Unconventional move here for the McGaughey barn putting this horse in stakes company off of the debut, but the debut here was huge. Likes the surface & looks like he’ll stretch out just fine. Don’t miss at a price
(2) GIGANTE – Loves this track & keeps improving with every start. Stretch out in distance looks very optimal, & should get some pace to run at. Sharp last out work to prepare for this, will be sharp again
RACE 11
(11) GLIDER – Really nice last out win over a surface he loves here, steps back up in trip & it seems the longer the better for him. Improving with every start for a hot barn in Mark Casse
(4) MCLOVIN – Ran very well last out at Ellis Park at a similar distance at a price. Winner of that race has gone on to be G1 quality. Also reunites with previous rider Julien Leparoux
(6) TEMPLE – Has the most experience at this distance & some of the highest numbers & figures. Does have to shake off some rust coming in off of a 9 month layoff. Regular rider Jose Ortiz back aboard
